VERIFICATION OF RESULTS THE DELPHI METHOD THROUGH OTHER SOCIOLOGICAL STUDIES: VERIFICATION OF RESULTS THE DELPHI METHOD THROUGH OTHER SOCIOLOGICAL STUDIES

Sonya Ilieva

doi:10.46687/jsar.v4i1.98

Authors

Sonya Ilieva KONSTANTIN PRESLAVSKI UNIVERSITY OF SHUMEN, SHUMEN 9712, 115, UNIVERSITETSKA STR.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.46687/jsar.v4i1.98

Keywords:

forecasting, long-term forecasting, risk groups, research group, expert group, experts, consensus, panel, communication, electronic communication, Likert-questionnaire, Delphi method, minority, groups, seniors/pensioners, persons with antisocial behavior, crimes, vital position, evaluation, position, social sphere, sample survey, purpose, specific purposes, population, excerpt, non-stochastic excerpt, postal survey, electronic poll, methods for long-term forecasting

Abstract

Delphi method is theoretically shown in a number of theoretical studies of Bulgarian scientists - both before and after 1989, but for the first time realized practically in Bulgaria by a research team of the Department "Social works" University of Shumen "Bishop Konstantin of Preslav" in 2011 . Nevertheless, that it was educational probed it was acquired valuable information and most experienced of the procedures involved. Through the first Bulgarian Delphi predicted future risk groups in Bulgarian society after 15 years, and according to expert consensus are: minority groups, older people / pensioners and persons with antisocial behavior and criminal behavior. To verify these results, the research group realized two additional studies showing full coverage of the results of the Delphi study conducted by undoubtedly prove its effectiveness.

Author Biography

Sonya Ilieva , KONSTANTIN PRESLAVSKI UNIVERSITY OF SHUMEN, SHUMEN 9712, 115, UNIVERSITETSKA STR.

KONSTANTIN PRESLAVSKI UNIVERSITY OF SHUMEN, SHUMEN 9712, 115, UNIVERSITETSKA STR.

VERIFICATION OF RESULTS THE DELPHI METHOD THROUGH OTHER SOCIOLOGICAL STUDIES